《股票作手回忆录·第十四章·游戏永不变·人性永不变》第17节
The leaders that had ceased to lead I sold. I put out a short line of five thousand shares in each of them; and then I went long of the new leaders. The stocks I was short of didn’t do much, but my long stocks kept on rising. When finally these in turn ceased to advance I sold them out and went short--five thousand shares of each. By this time I was more bearish than bullish, because obviously the next big money was going to be made on the down side. While I felt certain that the bear market had really begun before the bull market had really ended, I knew the time for being a rampant bear was not yet. There was no sense in being more royalist than the king; especially in being so too soon. The tape merely said that patrolling parties from the main bear army had dashed by. Time to get ready. I kept on both buying and selling until after about a month’s trading I had out a short line of sixty thousand shares--five thousand shares each in a dozen different stocks which earlier in the year had been the public’s favourites because they had been the leaders of the great bull market. It was not a very heavy line; but don’t forget that neither was the market definitely bearish.
注释摘要
这段描述展现的是一种极为冷静、几乎冷酷的市场观察与自我调整。它不是预测，而是对价格行为本身的解读，如同一名医生通过症状判断病情，而非猜测病人明天会吃什么。 这里涉及的核心操作是做空。在1900年代的华尔街，“做空”意味着卖出你并不持有的股票，期望未来以更低的价格买回，从中赚取差价。这在当时是合法的投机行为，但风险巨大，因为理论上股票可以无限上涨，亏损没有上…