《股票作手回忆录·第十四章·游戏永不变·人性永不变》第16节
It was simple enough. In a bull market the trend of prices, of course, is decidedly and definitely upward. Therefore whenever a stock goes against the general trend you are justified in assuming that there is something wrong with that particular stock. It is enough for the experienced trader to perceive that something is wrong. He must not expect the tape to become a lecturer. His job is to listen for it to say “Get out!” and not wait for it to submit a legal brief for approval. As I said before, I noticed that stocks which had been the leaders of the wonderful advance had ceased to advance. They dropped six or seven points and stayed there. At the same time the rest of the market kept on advancing under new standard bearers. Since nothing wrong had developed with the companies themselves, the reason had to be sought elsewhere. Those stocks had gone with the current for months. When they ceased to do so, though the bull tide was still running strong, it meant that for those particular stocks the bull market was over. For the rest of the list the tendency was still decidedly upward. There was no need to be perplexed into inactivity, for there were really no cross currents. I did not turn bearish on the market then, because the tape didn’t tell me to do so. The end of the bull market had not come, though it was within hailing distance. Pending its arrival there was still bull money to be made. Such being the case, I merely turned bearish on the stocks which had stopped advancing and as the rest of the market had rising power behind it I both bought and sold.
注释摘要
这段文字展现了利弗莫尔对市场运行规律的深刻洞见，其核心在于他如何通过“领涨股”的变化来感知牛市内部的裂变。要理解这段话，我们首先得回到1916年的华尔街，那时的交易大厅里没有计算机屏幕，投资者依赖的是行情纸带——一条窄窄的纸条不断从电报机里吐出，上面印着股票代码和最新成交价。所谓的“行情纸带”就是市场最原始、最真实的语言，它不讲故事，只陈述事实。在纸上，一…