《股票作手回忆录·第十四章·游戏永不变·人性永不变》第23节
If I hadn’t bought that cotton just before the market closed the day before, I would have saved that four hundred thousand dollars. It shows you how quickly a man may lose big money on a moderate line. My main position was absolutely correct and I benefited by an accident of a nature diametrically opposite to the considerations that led me to take the position I did in stocks and wheat. Observe, please, that the speculative line of least resistance again demonstrated its value to a trader. Prices went as I expected, notwithstanding the unexpected market factor introduced by the German note. If things had turned out as I had figured I would have been 100 per cent right in all three of my lines, for with peace stocks and wheat would have gone down and cotton would have gone kiting up. I would have cleaned up in all three. Irrespective of peace or war, I was right in my position on the stock market and in wheat and that is why the unlooked-for event helped. In cotton I based my play on something that might happen outside of the market--that is, I bet on Mr. Wilson’s success in his peace negotiations. It was the German military leaders who made me lose the cotton bet.
注释摘要
这段陈述发生在一九一七年，第一次世界大战的硝烟正浓。欧洲列强在战场上厮杀得精疲力竭，美国则处在一个暧昧的中间地带——尚未正式宣战，但经济早已被绑在协约国的战车上。当时的市场情绪对“和平”这两个字极其敏感，威尔逊总统确实在积极调停，任何一点来自华盛顿的和平风声都能让商品价格剧烈波动。棉花作为重要的战略物资，战时需求猛涨；一旦和平来临，棉花会因预期欧洲恢复正常…