《股票作手回忆录·第十四章·游戏永不变·人性永不变》第20节
I cleared about three million dollars in 1916 by being bullish as long as the bull market lasted and then by being bearish when the bear market started. As I said before, a man does not have to marry one side of the market till death do them part. That winter I went South, to Palm Beach, as I usually do for a vacation, because I am very fond of salt-water fishing. I was short of stocks and wheat, and both lines showed me a handsome profit. There wasn’t anything to annoy me and I was having a good time. Of course unless I go to Europe I cannot really be out of touch with the stock or commodities markets. For instance, in the Adirondacks I have a direct wire from my broker’s office to my house. In Palm Beach I used to go to my broker’s branch office regularly. I noticed that cotton, in which I had no interest, was strong and rising. About that time--this was in 1917--I heard a great deal about the efforts that President Wilson was making to bring about peace. The reports came from Washington, both in the shape of press dispatches and private advice to friends in Palm Beach. That is the reason why one day I got the notion that the course of the various markets reflected confidence in Mr. Wilson’s success. With peace supposedly close at hand, stocks and wheat ought to go down and cotton up. I was all set as far as stocks and wheat went, but I had not done anything in cotton in some time.
注释摘要
这一段的背景需要放到第一次世界大战期间的美国金融市场来看。1916年是典型的战争繁荣年，欧洲列强打得不可开交，美国作为中立国向交战国大量出口物资，黄金以前所未有的速度涌入美国，通货膨胀推高了几乎所有资产的价格。华尔街迎来了一场酣畅淋漓的牛市，市民阶层和投机者纷纷涌入，市场交易量屡创新高。利文斯顿在这一年同时操作股票和商品期货，尤其是小麦。当时大宗商品被视为…