《股票作手回忆录·第六章·旧金山地震·做空联合太平洋》第10节
But all my friend said was: “Yes, that listens fine. But I tell you, the market doesn’t agree with you. The tape doesn’t lie, does it?” “It doesn’t always tell the truth on the instant,” I said. “Listen. A man was talking to Jim Fisk a little before Black Friday, giving ten good reasons why gold ought to go down for keeps. He got so encouraged by his own words that he ended by telling Fisk that he was going to sell a few million. And Jim Fisk just looked at him and said, “Go ahead! Do! Sell it short and invite me to your funeral.” “Yes,” I said; “and if that chap had sold it short, look at the killing he would have made! Sell some UP. yourself.” “Not I! I’m the kind that thrives best on not rowing against wind and tide.” On the following day, when fuller reports came in, the market began to slide off, but even then not as violently as it should. Knowing that nothing under the sun could stave off a substantial break I doubled up and sold five thousand shares. Oh, by that time it was plain to most people, and my brokers were willing enough. It wasn’t reckless of them or of me, not the way I sized up the market. On the day following, the market began to go for fair. There was the dickens to pay. Of course I pushed my luck for all it was worth. I doubled up again and sold ten thousand shares more. It was the only play possible.
注释摘要
这段对话发生在一个非常微妙的心理关口。拉里已经开了空单，地震的消息也传来了，但市场头两天偏偏没怎么跌，甚至还往回涨了涨。朋友那句“纸带不会撒谎”，讲的是当时交易室里最通行的一种信仰。 在1906年，行情纸带就是市场最直接的脉搏。电报线把纽约交易所的每一笔成交价实时传过来，嗒嗒嗒地印在窄窄的纸带上。那年代没有图表软件，没有技术指标，职业交易员就盯着这条纸带看…