《福尔摩斯探案集·蓝宝石案》第8节
“But his wife—you said that she had ceased to love him.” “This hat has not been brushed for weeks. When I see you, my dear Watson, with a week’s accumulation of dust upon your hat, and when your wife allows you to go out in such a state, I shall fear that you also have been unfortunate enough to lose your wife’s affection.” “But he might be a bachelor.” “Nay, he was bringing home the goose as a peace-offering to his wife. Remember the card upon the bird’s leg.” “You have an answer to everything. But how on earth do you deduce that the gas is not laid on in his house?” “One tallow stain, or even two, might come by chance; but when I see no less than five, I think that there can be little doubt that the individual must be brought into frequent contact with burning tallow—walks upstairs at night probably with his hat in one hand and a guttering candle in the other. Anyhow, he never got tallow-stains from a gas-jet. Are you satisfied?” “Well, it is very ingenious,” said I, laughing; “but since, as you said just now, there has been no crime committed, and no harm done save the loss of a goose, all this seems to be rather a waste of energy.”
注释摘要
华生在这里抓住了福尔摩斯推理链条中最薄弱的一环——关于婚姻状况的断言，于是提出了一个相当合理的质疑：帽子没刷，只能说明帽主不修边幅或无人照料，怎么就一定是妻子不爱他了？这一问，恰恰暴露了福尔摩斯式推理的一个特征：它往往不是从证据到结论的单向推导，而是一个大胆的假说在前，然后用看似琐碎的细节去辩护。福尔摩斯的回答其实是一个精致的文字游戏——他把因果关系悄悄地…